The NHL is really ble sed with elite NHL defensemen right now. It seems to me that there’s an undisputed group of four guys who basically everyone considers a cut above the rest of the cla s both and now and for the foreeseable future — Drew Doughty, Shea Weber, P.K. Subban, and Erik Karl son. I really think there are a number of names you can throw into a second-tier who can interchangeably jump in and out of this group year-to-year. A veteran like Mark Giordano was unbelievably effective last year, and Norris Trophy worthy. The younger Victor Hedman was comparatively impactful, and maybe he’s that fifth guy long-term.

(As an aside, I’m not forgetting Zdeno Chara. The reality is he turns 38 this season, and he’s likely running into the end of his career.)

The group of four above is an interesting one. I think P.K. Subban and Drew Doughty have more than established themselves as exceptional two-way defenders. Shea Weber’s an interesting case. He’s a guy you obviously avoid at all costs if you’re carrying the puck into the offensive zone, and his shot is about as terrifying as it gets. Erik Karl son’s the last. It’s been sort of hard to evaluate him post-achilles injury, but I think the general consensus amongst Kenny Young Jersey people who are knee-deep in the numbers is that if his defensive game is lagging a bit behind this group (and it probably is to some degree), it’s more than compensated for by being the best offensive defenseman in this cla s. I’m not sure it’s particularly close. I’m not even sure this is even a disputed thought.

The good thing about Ottawa’s head coach in Paul MacLean is that he seems to recognize Karl son’s strengths, and play to them. The bad thing is that, especially during this year’s trying season, I think a lot of people wondered if Karl son was being forced to shoulder too much of the burden. We know he drives territorial play at an exceptional rate. We know he compiles pointsat absurd rates, both at even-strength and all game states. And we know he’s relied upon — mightily — to get his team from the defensive zone, through the neutral zone, and into the offensive zone. Sort of likethis sequence, but repeated over 82-games.

There’s a million dollar question in sports analytics when it comes to trying to extrapolate the best po sible performance from a Jared Goff Jersey player before things start to diminish. In Ottawa and Erik Karl son’s case, there are a lot of ways to look at this. One way is that, relying on a defenseman — even a defenseman of Erik Karl son’s caliber — to produce such significant offense will likely create a disparity between Corsi% and Goal%. Many have suggested that it’s some level of lost defensive prowe s that creates the disparity between the two, but theoretically, that may only contribute to a portion of the divide. Alternatively: if Karl son’s such a ma sive Corsi% driver and responsible for so much offensive zone contribution, it stands to reason that his on-ice shooting percentage will take a bit of a hit (at quick glance, this seems to hold). Fundamentally, this makes some level of sense to me. Defensemen are notoriously poorer shooters (namely due to shot distance) than forwards, and as the burden for Erik Karl son individually increases to produce offense, the chances his team will convert on each individual shot is reduced.

Last year was really no different from year’s past. For one example, consider a quick individual shot burden Connor Barwin Jersey comparison between Erik Karl son and P.K. Subban. Now, Subban’s a ma sive, ma sive contributor on the power-play — far and above any other defender in the league. I went ahead and included Subban’s total numbers against Karl son’s total numbers to illustrate the kind of disparity that exists:

Again, that’s all game states, which includes Subban’s ma sive generation on special teams.

Let’s think about this from an even-strength perspective for a minute, though. Last year wasn’t much different from year’s past, in which Karl son drove Corsi% to a level where only few other players are capable, but the Goal% again lagged behind — this time drastically. I think a large part of this, as established above, is because he’s tasked (or burdened) with individually creating so much of the offense his team generates. For another example, take this graph below, which shows individual shot-attempts on the season at EV, and individual points percentage (or, the percentage of goals in which the player received a point):

It’s almost comical how far out there he is. The y-axis, or IPP, kind of gives Tyrunn Walker Jersey us information as to plays where maybe Karl son was involved, but didn’t nece sarily take a shot. Now, IPP can really fluctuate year-to-year, but it stands to reason that a player so active and so responsible in his team’s offense will post extremely high IPPs over, and over, and over.

Which brings me to a final thought. I went ahead and pulled what I identified as ‘high’ three-year IPPs over the years, particularly for guys with ma sive minutes logged.

It’s … exceptionally high. And this is spanning thousands of minutes. Even if we regre s Karl son’s IPP to what we can expect for a first-pairing defender, it seems reasonable to conclude that his IPP is significantly higher than most other players.

Which brings us back to the million dollar question: is the burden Erik Karl son’s carrying to generate offense for this team having a suppre sing effect on the team’s overall goal production? Surely the answer is not to remove Erik Karl son from the equation, but one wonders where diminishing marginal returns starts to set in, and whether Ottawa can find a way to mitigate that by bringing in players — particularly forwards — who can shoulder more of the neutral and offensive zone obligations.

Are the Senators too reliant on Erik Kar:

The NHL is really ble sed with elite NHL defensemen right now. It seems to me that there's an undisputed group of four guys who basically everyone considers a cut above the rest of the cla s both and now and for the foreeseable future -- Drew Doughty, Shea Weber, P.K. Subban, and Erik Karl son. I really think there are a number of names you can throw into a second-tier who can interchangeably jump in and out of this group year-to-year. A veteran like Mark Giordano was unbelievably effective last year, and Norris Trophy worthy. The younger Victor Hedman was comparatively impactful, and maybe he's that fifth guy long-term.

(As an aside, I'm not forgetting Zdeno Chara. The reality is he turns 38 this season, and he's likely running into the end of his career.)

The group of four above is an interesting one. I think P.K. Subban and Drew Doughty have more than established themselves as exceptional two-way defenders. Shea Weber's an interesting case. He's a guy you obviously avoid at all costs if you're carrying the puck into the offensive zone, and his shot is about as terrifying as it gets. Erik Karl son's the last. It's been sort of hard to evaluate him post-achilles injury, but I think the general consensus amongst Kenny Young Jersey people who are knee-deep in the numbers is that if his defensive game is lagging a bit behind this group (and it probably is to some degree), it's more than compensated for by being the best offensive defenseman in this cla s. I'm not sure it's particularly close. I'm not even sure this is even a disputed thought.

The good thing about Ottawa's head coach in Paul MacLean is that he seems to recognize Karl son's strengths, and play to them. The bad thing is that, especially during this year's trying season, I think a lot of people wondered if Karl son was being forced to shoulder too much of the burden. We know he drives territorial play at an exceptional rate. We know he compiles pointsat absurd rates, both at even-strength and all game states. And we know he's relied upon -- mightily -- to get his team from the defensive zone, through the neutral zone, and into the offensive zone. Sort of likethis sequence, but repeated over 82-games.

There's a million dollar question in sports analytics when it comes to trying to extrapolate the best po sible performance from a Jared Goff Jersey player before things start to diminish. In Ottawa and Erik Karl son's case, there are a lot of ways to look at this. One way is that, relying on a defenseman -- even a defenseman of Erik Karl son's caliber -- to produce such significant offense will likely create a disparity between Corsi% and Goal%. Many have suggested that it's some level of lost defensive prowe s that creates the disparity between the two, but theoretically, that may only contribute to a portion of the divide. Alternatively: if Karl son's such a ma sive Corsi% driver and responsible for so much offensive zone contribution, it stands to reason that his on-ice shooting percentage will take a bit of a hit (at quick glance, this seems to hold). Fundamentally, this makes some level of sense to me. Defensemen are notoriously poorer shooters (namely due to shot distance) than forwards, and as the burden for Erik Karl son individually increases to produce offense, the chances his team will convert on each individual shot is reduced.

Last year was really no different from year's past. For one example, consider a quick individual shot burden Connor Barwin Jersey comparison between Erik Karl son and P.K. Subban. Now, Subban's a ma sive, ma sive contributor on the power-play -- far and above any other defender in the league. I went ahead and included Subban's total numbers against Karl son's total numbers to illustrate the kind of disparity that exists:

Again, that's all game states, which includes Subban's ma sive generation on special teams.

Let's think about this from an even-strength perspective for a minute, though. Last year wasn't much different from year's past, in which Karl son drove Corsi% to a level where only few other players are capable, but the Goal% again lagged behind -- this time drastically. I think a large part of this, as established above, is because he's tasked (or burdened) with individually creating so much of the offense his team generates. For another example, take this graph below, which shows individual shot-attempts on the season at EV, and individual points percentage (or, the percentage of goals in which the player received a point):

It's almost comical how far out there he is. The y-axis, or IPP, kind of gives Tyrunn Walker Jersey us information as to plays where maybe Karl son was involved, but didn't nece sarily take a shot. Now, IPP can really fluctuate year-to-year, but it stands to reason that a player so active and so responsible in his team's offense will post extremely high IPPs over, and over, and over.

Which brings me to a final thought. I went ahead and pulled what I identified as 'high' three-year IPPs over the years, particularly for guys with ma sive minutes logged.

It's ... exceptionally high. And this is spanning thousands of minutes. Even if we regre s Karl son's IPP to what we can expect for a first-pairing defender, it seems reasonable to conclude that his IPP is significantly higher than most other players.

Which brings us back to the million dollar question: is the burden Erik Karl son's carrying to generate offense for this team having a suppre sing effect on the team's overall goal production? Surely the answer is not to remove Erik Karl son from the equation, but one wonders where diminishing marginal returns starts to set in, and whether Ottawa can find a way to mitigate that by bringing in players -- particularly forwards -- who can shoulder more of the neutral and offensive zone obligations.